Libya: Suspended Legitimacy

The News: Rome hosted the first “4+4” format meeting under UN mission auspices, with representatives from eastern and western Libya agreeing on a mechanism to reconstitute the High National Elections Commission through a judicial appointment by the Attorney General. However, two members of the High Council of State — Ali Abd al-Aziz and Abd al-Jalil al-Shawish — participated without formal authorization, prompting the Council to issue Decision No. 4 of 2026 prohibiting such participation and declaring that Rome’s outcomes “neither represent nor legally or politically bind” the Council.

Background: Libya has been locked in political deadlock since the collapse of the December 2021 electoral process. The stalemate has become self-sustaining because it serves the interests of every party: Dbeibah controls the central bank and oil revenues, while Haftar retains his military autonomy and access to eastern resources. The February 2026 assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi deepened the ambiguity by eliminating the most prominent political figure capable of unifying a broad electoral constituency. The sharpest irony: the UN mission itself acknowledges in an internal report a “strategic and governance paralysis” — no approved work plan, most recommendations unimplemented.

Regional Implications and Why It Matters: Libya is not a self-contained file. It is an oil state on Europe’s doorstep, its coastline serving as the gateway for migration into the continent, its southern border open to the spreading chaos of Mali and the tensions of Sudan to its southeast. A northern Mali collapse would send weapons and fighters through the Sahara directly into southern Libya’s existing security vacuum. An emerging American variable warrants close attention: Trump adviser Massad Boulos’s visits and the Paris meeting that included Saddam Haftar are being read as a coordinated external push toward a settlement. The European Union, for its part, expresses cautious optimism over the first-ever joint participation of eastern and western Libyan forces in the Flintlock 2026 exercises — the only positive signal in an otherwise bleak landscape. The fundamental question no one dares ask openly: are elections at this moment a pathway to stability — or the opening shot of a new round of conflict for which no one is prepared?