Assab, Cairo, and Addis Ababa: The New Contest in the Horn

The hottest axis is the Egyptian–Eritrean rapprochement facing off against Ethiopia. On June 10, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aty met his Eritrean counterpart Osman Saleh in Cairo, with Egypt affirming that the security and stability of the Horn of Africa is a “direct extension” of its national security — as Cairo expands its security and military engagement in support of Sudan’s army and Somalia’s federal government. Addis Ababa responded by renewing its criticism of Egypt and Eritrea, accusing Asmara of “secretly plotting” a new war, while the two capitals trade accusations of backing cross-border armed groups.

The backdrop: with Ethiopia’s general elections set for June 2026 and his legacy on the line, Abiy Ahmed needs a unifying national cause, and he has increasingly signaled that regaining Red Sea access could be it — given the roughly $1.5 billion Ethiopia pays Djibouti annually for port access. Addis Ababa’s ambitions center on Eritrea’s port of Assab, a file that raises “historical and security alarms.”

U.S. significance: The Horn is turning into an arena of entangled competition among Gulf powers, Turkey, Egypt, and others, with a risk of horizontal escalation into a proxy war on both sides of the Red Sea. Ethiopia’s alleged involvement in drone strikes on Sudan (launched from Bahir Dar) links this file directly to Sudan’s war and to Washington’s priority of securing Red Sea navigation. The continued U.S. troop presence in Somalia — subject to a possible policy review — places the Trump administration before a strategic decision.