Sudan: Can the U.S. Initiative Succeed, and Will the RSF Accept a Full Withdrawal?

The News
Sudan’s army says it will only broadly accept a U.S. plan to end the three-year war if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fully withdraw from the cities they control. The U.S. plan calls for an immediate 90-day humanitarian truce, leading to talks on a permanent ceasefire and a civilian transition to elections. It also proposes a UN-led mechanism to support limited RSF withdrawals, starting with North Darfur, where the RSF took El Fasher, and North Kordofan, which is facing RSF drone strikes. The RSF says it welcomed the plan and sent a written reply, without sharing details. But it has welcomed past peace efforts while continuing to fight.

The Core Dispute
In almost every round of talks, the army has insisted that the RSF leave the cities before any political deal. The RSF has rejected this. The cities are its main supply centers and give it cover. Leaving without a mutual deal would expose it to direct attack and cost it its strongest bargaining chip. It also wants to keep major cities like El Fasher and El Obeid to create facts on the ground and run a parallel administration that gives it legitimacy in any future settlement.

What Could Push the RSF to Accept

• Legal pressure: UN experts have accused the RSF of genocide in Darfur. This makes its leaders tie any concession to legal protection and guarantees for their fighters.
• Less outside support: The RSF relied on foreign weapons and money to recruit fighters and bring in mercenaries from West Africa, South Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, and Colombia. This support has weakened as the war dragged on and pressure grew, but it has not fully stopped.
• Tougher international sanctions.

Regional backers with ties to the RSF, especially the UAE, would likely prefer a deal that keeps a role for the RSF rather than a withdrawal that leads to its defeat. However, the UAE’s public position has focused on a ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and a civilian-led solution, and it continues to deny giving military support to either side.

Why It Matters to the U.S.
This is the first real test of whether Washington can become the main mediator in Sudan again after earlier efforts failed. The U.S. wants to ease the humanitarian crisis and stop Sudan from becoming an arena for rival powers that could threaten the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. It is especially worried about Islamist groups linked to the army growing closer to Iran, and about the war helping these groups regain power inside the state. If the plan fails, U.S. diplomatic influence will weaken and building international agreement to end the war will become harder.