Sudan: Continuation and Expansion of the War

Ongoing Battles in Western Sudan and Kordofan

• Humanitarian crisis in Darfur worsens with escalating violence and mass displacement
• Cholera outbreak emerges, causing deaths and significant infections among civilians
• Rapid Support Forces accused of committing crimes against civilians in several areas
• Violent fighting in South Kordofan and Central Kordofan states
• RSF advancing and taking control of strategic locations
• Civilians trapped in crossfire with increasing internal displacement
• Drone strikes reported leading to civilian deaths and injuries
• Escalating attacks across the country further increase suffering of populations in war-affected areas

The Humanitarian Crisis – Numbers and Warnings

The Situation is Extremely Tragic:

• More than 30 million people need humanitarian assistance
• Tens of millions displaced internally or across borders seeking refuge
• Disruption of basic services like food, water, and healthcare in vast areas
• Rights and humanitarian organizations warn of permanent closure of humanitarian corridors
• Urgent need to protect civilians, especially after prolonged suffering in Darfur and Kordofan

The United Nations and Renewed Calls

Renewed Calls for Ceasefire

• UN, led by António Guterres, renews calls for immediate ceasefire
• Civilian suffering described as “unbearable” amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions
• Both sides (army and Rapid Support Forces) called to negotiate immediately

UN Warns of Conflict Expansion

• Potential expansion to oil and other vital areas like Heglig field
• Reflects “complexity and expansion of the conflict” into dangerous regional dimensions

Sudanese Government Initiative at the United Nations

Prime Minister Kamel Idris presented comprehensive peace plan to Security Council:

• Ceasefire under UN supervision
• Withdrawal of Rapid Support Forces to monitored positions
• Demobilization and redeployment of fighters

RSF Rejection: Plan faced rejection from Rapid Support Forces, which view it as stripping them of military and political influence

U.S. Call: United States called for accepting immediate humanitarian cessation as first step toward comprehensive ceasefire, supporting truce plan backed by International Quartet (U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE)

United States Position and the International Quartet

Trump Administration (via advisor Massaad Boulos): Welcomed UN mission’s entry into El Fasher as result of U.S. and international diplomatic efforts to facilitate aid delivery, demonstrating international community’s ability to achieve tangible humanitarian progress even before comprehensive political solution

The International Quartet: U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and UAE have repeatedly called for humanitarian truce and temporary ceasefire as condition for enabling aid delivery and establishing political dialogue, but ongoing conflict and divergent interests of local parties have kept agreement out of reach

Role of Regional Countries

Egypt Emphasizes Safe Corridors: Cairo affirmed necessity of providing safe havens and humanitarian corridors inside Sudan, stressing that protecting civilians and delivering aid must be priority in any agreement to stop fighting

UAE and European Efforts: Ongoing diplomatic efforts to support political solution, but face major challenges amid continuing war and political deadlock

Most Important Implications

Humanitarian:

• UN mission’s entry into El Fasher could pave way for opening larger humanitarian corridors and delivering food and medicine
• Does not substitute for complete cessation of fighting
• Crisis remains at peak with cholera spreading and shortages of food and medicine

Political and Military:

• Military advances in multiple areas increase complexity of prospects for ending war
• RSF rejection of plans seeking to transfer military authority politically creates major barrier to comprehensive peace agreement

International:

• UN continues to pressure both sides for ceasefire
• International Quartet pushes toward settlement including humanitarian cessation as first step

Quick Summary

• Situation in Sudan remains extremely difficult for civilians with continuing war and deteriorating humanitarian conditions
• UN mission’s entry into El Fasher represents important indicator but does not guarantee ceasefire or stable peaceful relations
• International and U.S. efforts focus on humanitarian cessation first, then comprehensive cessation, but political and military divergence obstructs implementation