The Fertilizer Crisis and the Specter of Famine

The News

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has established an emergency task force to secure the passage of fertilizers and agricultural raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz for humanitarian purposes, amid a near-total halt in tanker traffic since the war began. The task force director, Jorge Moreira da Silva, announced that the UN is ready for full operational deployment within seven days of the moment political will is secured from the parties to the conflict. In parallel, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on the G20 to immediately coordinate with the IMF and World Bank to guarantee fertilizer supplies — a push backed by a majority of members, but with reservations from several others.

The Critical Numbers

• One third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz under normal conditions
• 35% of global crude oil and 20% of liquified natural gas transit the same strait
• 45 million additional people face hunger and famine if the disruption continues
• 12 countries at minimum are preparing to request emergency IMF rescue programs
• Africa’s agricultural season ends in May — weeks away

Significance for the United States

Multiple American interests are entangled in this crisis simultaneously. The naval blockade Washington imposed on Iran is now casting its shadow over global food security, exposing the U.S. to mounting international criticism as a contributing factor to worsening famine. A decline in agricultural output across sub-Saharan Africa — which imports a substantial share of its fertilizers from the Gulf region — will fuel waves of migration and instability that touch American security interests over the long term. Beyond that, Washington’s failure to lead a coordinated G20 response would erode its standing as the guarantor of the international economic order — something the Trump administration is acutely aware of as it seeks to transform the G20 into a more “nimble, action-oriented” instrument.

Implications for Africa

The African countries hardest hit are those already burdened by prior fragility:

• Sudan and Somalia: Mired in armed conflict and mass displacement, any fertilizer cutoff will transform their existing food crises into outright catastrophe.
• Mozambique and Kenya: Among Africa’s largest importers of Gulf fertilizers, both are now at the peak of their agricultural season.
• Sri Lanka: Still recovering from its economic collapse, a fertilizer disruption would set the country back years.

This crisis lays bare a sharp strategic dilemma for Washington: the blockade is a pressure tool against Iran, but it is a double-edged weapon that strikes the poor before it strikes the adversary. The United Nations is offering a practical exit — an exceptional, limited mechanism for fertilizers that does not touch the principle of freedom of navigation — but activating it requires the consent of the parties to the conflict, which has not yet been secured.