Saudi Arabia’s Growing Military Influence in Somalia

The News
Somalia’s federal forces have suffered a series of losses to al-Shabaab across large parts of central Somalia. Reports accuse the government of outgoing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of lacking a reliable army that can hold recaptured areas, because of desertion, poor training, and uneven support from the federal member states. Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia is expanding its funding for training Somali troops. On June 29, a Saudi military delegation visited two Saudi-funded training camps in Guri Ceel, in the Galgaduud region of Galmudug State. About 5,107 soldiers are being trained there, including nearly 2,000 from Puntland who are receiving special training. The program lasts nine months and is run by foreign trainers from Romania, Ukraine, South Africa, and Colombia. It follows a defense cooperation agreement the two countries signed in Riyadh on February 9, 2026. Not all details of the agreement have been made public.

Why It Is Happening

• Somali government forces are performing poorly against al-Shabaab.
• Riyadh wants a security foothold in the Horn of Africa. Somalia’s long coastline and closeness to the Bab al-Mandab Strait make it key to Red Sea shipping routes.
• The program may go beyond Somalia’s own security. Unconfirmed reports, including a statement from a Puntland officer taking part in the training, say part of this force is being prepared to deploy to Sudan to fight alongside the Sudanese army and its Islamist allies. This would follow alleged Saudi supplies of missiles and ammunition to the Sudanese army in 2023 and 2024.

What It Could Lead To

• Many countries train Somali troops (Turkey, the U.S., the UAE, Egypt, Eritrea, and Uganda), but their programs are not coordinated, use different methods, and leave unclear who the trained forces are ultimately loyal to. This increases competition for influence, makes it harder to build one national army, and could upset the balance of power between the federal government and the states.
• These programs are not only about fighting al-Shabaab. They are also a way for foreign countries to build long-term strategic ties with Mogadishu.
• If trained units are sent to Sudan, security in the Horn of Africa would become tied to Sudan’s war, raising regional competition and further internationalizing the conflicts.

Why It Matters to the U.S.
Saudi Arabia’s role fits the U.S. approach of reducing direct military involvement and letting allies take on bigger security roles. This allows Washington to shift resources toward the Indo-Pacific and keep influence in Somalia without adding troops. The program is also a test of whether Riyadh can build military institutions in fragile states. If it succeeds, Washington may rely more on Saudi Arabia elsewhere in Africa. If it fails, it will raise doubts about handing security roles to allies. However, if fighters are moved to Sudan, it would link two conflicts that Washington is trying to contain separately, making it harder to stop Sudan’s war from spreading and fighters from moving across the region.