The U.S. Will End Its Support for the UN Support Office in Somalia by the End of 2026

The News

The United States has set December 31, 2026, as the date it will stop all support for the UN Support Office in Somalia. Washington says that almost 20 years of investment did not lead to real security reform or political unity. A U.S. letter blamed the Somali government for failing to keep making progress against al-Shabaab and for not reforming its security sector. It said internal political fighting was the main cause. The decision is part of a wider U.S. review of foreign spending. It also comes as President Trump has become more hostile toward Somalia and has banned travel to the country.

Key Numbers

• Since 2007, the U.S. has given about $2 billion to UN missions in Somalia, more than $1.6 billion to African forces there, and hundreds of millions of dollars to Somali security forces.
• The UN Support Office’s budget is more than $500 million a year. It was cut by $130 million, from $520 million, in the last fiscal year.
• The African Union mission inherited $93.9 million in unpaid debts to countries that send troops. It has raised only a small part of its $166.5 million budget.
• Somalia’s own government revenue is only about $404 million (2025).
• The Somali National Army has about 32,000 soldiers on paper, but only 19,000 are actually ready to deploy.

Why It Matters to the U.S.
The decision shows a U.S. shift away from long-term security support. Washington wants to reduce its direct commitments and have local and regional partners carry more of the load. At the same time, it wants to keep influence in a strategically important region without spending resources on open-ended operations, especially as global competition over Africa grows.

What It Could Lead To

• The African Union mission depends on the UN office for fuel, transport, maintenance, and medical supplies. With its money problems, it is unclear how it can continue without this help.
• A security gap could open that al-Shabaab could use. The group still controls large areas of central and southern Somalia. The government made gains after 2022, but many of them were later lost.
• Mogadishu cannot afford to replace this support. Its army suffers from clan-based recruitment, desertion, corruption, and weak leadership. Its intelligence services struggle to turn information into preventive operations.
• Outside powers may take on new roles in the Horn of Africa, with Somalia relying more on direct support from individual countries, especially Turkey.

Possible Scenarios

1. Gradual handover: The government builds up its forces with limited regional and international help and keeps its gains without a major security setback.
2. Security vacuum: The end of support weakens Somali and African forces. Al-Shabaab retakes areas and increases attacks, forcing the international community to return in new forms.
3. Reshaped support: The U.S. and its partners switch to smaller programs focused on counterterrorism and intelligence training, while the African Union and regional countries take on more responsibility.