The Nexus
The Fertilizer Crisis and the Specter of Famine
The News UN Secretary-General António Guterres has established an emergency task force to secure the passage of fertilizers and agricultural raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz for humanitarian purposes, amid a…
Africa and the Middle East – Monday, April 20, 2026
File 1: Strait of Hormuz on the Edge — Ceasefire Expires Wednesday What Happened The US-Iran ceasefire expires Wednesday evening. President Trump said today that an extension is ‘highly unlikely.’ On Sunday, the USS…
United States & Iran — Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
The Islamabad Talks and Their CollapseWhat Happened? Weekend talks in Islamabad between Washington and Tehran ended without a deal. A source close to the negotiations said the two sides came “very close” to an agreement…
Africa and the Middle East – Monday, April 13, 2026
File One | The Middle East and Iran What Happened The U.S. military announced Monday morning a comprehensive naval blockade of Iran covering all shipping entering and leaving Iranian ports, after peace talks led by Vice…
The Oil Shock Hits the Most Vulnerable
The News: With Brent crude above $105 per barrel — after a 64% surge in March alone — African governments imposed sharp fuel price increases within days: Ghana raised petrol by 15% and diesel by 19%; Malawi raised them…
The Bahrain Amazon Strike: The War for the Cloud
What Happened In April 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missile and drone strikes targeting Amazon Web Services (AWS) infrastructure in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.Iranian officials…
Iran at the Center of the Three-Axis Confrontation
The American-Israeli Military Strategy — What Do Washington and Tel Aviv Actually Want? The News: Rubio revealed strategic objectives with unprecedented candor, stating that Washington seeks to destroy Iran’s capacity to…
Gulf Economies Under Pressure from the Iran War: The Strait of Hormuz and the Limits of Fiscal Resilience
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states entered the Iran-related conflict from a stronger financial position than many observers expected. Prior to the escalation, International Monetary Fund projections indicated that…
The Vote of 123: America Alone at the UN, China and Russia Gain Ground in Africa
On March 25th, on the very same day Iranian missiles were falling on Kuwait International Airport, the UN General Assembly convened and voted 123 to 3 to adopt a resolution condemning the transatlantic slave trade as…
Somalia and the Somaliland Card — The Recognition Struggle Penetrates Domestic Politics
The deeper story in the Somalia file does not begin this week. It begins on December 25th, when Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel had become the first country in the world to formally recognize the Republic of…
Uganda: The African General and the Logic of “Crisis Brotherhood”
General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, commander of Uganda’s defense forces and son of President Yoweri Museveni, published a series of posts on X in rapid succession that elevated Uganda’s position on the Middle East war to a…
SOUTH SUDAN: A STATE AT THE EDGE OF COLLAPSE — AGAIN
What happened? Armed clashes and mass displacement have intensified in South Sudan as the political process stalls and international attention wanes, amid mounting pressure from the neighboring Sudanese war that has…